According to @StockMKTNewz citing Reuters, the first two cargo ships carrying Venezuelan oil exported by Chevron (CVX) after receiving a fresh U.S. authorization last month have departed for the United States (source: Reuters). Additional Venezuelan barrels increase U.S.-bound supply, and increases in crude supply generally put downward pressure on prices under global supply-demand dynamics (source: U.S. Energy Information Administration). Energy prices carry a meaningful weight in U.S. headline CPI, so oil moves feed directly into inflation prints that markets track (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). The Federal Reserve targets 2 percent inflation, making inflation data a key driver of policy expectations that influence risk assets (source: Federal Reserve). Crypto markets have shown stronger co-movement with equities and macro shocks since 2020, so policy- and inflation-driven risk sentiment can spill over to BTC and ETH volatility and liquidity (source: International Monetary Fund).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recent U.S. trade deals are no longer reducing bond yields, and with most tariffs already paused, inflation is nearing the 2% target (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 21, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter notes that when Trump delays or removes tariffs, treasury yields rise as recession risks are priced out by the market. This shift in yields, influenced by both Trump’s tariff policy and Fed Chair Powell’s commitment to maintaining current monetary policy, signals a risk-on sentiment that historically correlates with increased capital flows into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Crypto traders should closely monitor U.S. tariff and Fed policy changes, as shifts in yields and inflation expectations directly impact Bitcoin and altcoin market volatility and trading volumes.